If you’re wondering about the future of LED lights, it’s time to put away that crystal ball and turn to something a little more reliable: science. Haitz’s Law is a prediction about how LED technology and cost will improve over time, based on the systematic observations of Dr. Roland Haitz, a retired Agilent Technologies scientist. Haitz’s Law states that “every decade, the cost per lumen (unit of useful light emitted) falls by a factor of 10, the amount of light generated per LED package increases by a factor of 20, for a given wavelength (color) of light.” Put simply, the law asserts that as LED functionality, quality and efficiency increase, the cost of producing and purchasing them will decrease.
Haitz’s Law is considered to be the LED equivalent of Moore’s Law, which states that the density of transistors on integrated circuits (an integral component to computers, cell phones and most all electronic devices) doubles every 18—24 months. Moore’s Law was first described in 1965, and has so far proven accurate. Haitz’s Law was made public in 2000, and has also proven accurate. In fact, some sources report that LED technology is improving at an even faster rate than Haitz predicted (see LED Lighting Group for more info).
The implications of Haitz’s Law for LED retailers and consumers are significant: LEDs will continue to get brighter and more efficient; LEDs will continue to get cheaper; and LEDs will continue to dominate the lighting market, over time completely replacing their less efficient counterparts, incandescent lights and CFLs. With scientific predictions like that, why would you use anything but stylish, eco-friendly and affordable LED lights?
Thanks to Chinaxtz for the image.